Joined
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996 Posts
The problem as I see it with long range BEV's is same problem 5 years ago and I am not sure if much has been solved. Batteries are still expensive and the cost to replace these batteries are glossed over by BEV manufacturers. For example a 53kwH Tesla battery costs somewhere in the neighborhood of $38k USD for just the part. That is 70+ cents per kw. The 85kwH battery would cost a customer somewhere in the neighborhood of 60k to replace.
Lets say the battery on the 85kwh Model S lasts 100k miles (70% capacity) and the cost has come down by 30% or so. These are very generous assumptions as the cost for the 53kwH battery used in the Tesla Roadster has not come down a single penny in the past 4 years. That still puts the 85kwh battery at 42k after 100k miles. Extrapolate that over 100k miles and this car is one of the most expensive cars ever to operate over 100k miles.
In sharp contrast a PHEV does not take as heavy a toll on its battery and these batteries tend to last a lot longer (batteries are also cheaper ~$12k for a Fisker Karma battery) Long term unless some huge breakthrough happens with regards to cheap batteries (not necessarily increased capacity/range) high mileage BEV owners will be in for a rude awakening in a few years. I am skeptical about battery costs coming down to the point of this not being an issue (in the next few years).
Lets say the battery on the 85kwh Model S lasts 100k miles (70% capacity) and the cost has come down by 30% or so. These are very generous assumptions as the cost for the 53kwH battery used in the Tesla Roadster has not come down a single penny in the past 4 years. That still puts the 85kwh battery at 42k after 100k miles. Extrapolate that over 100k miles and this car is one of the most expensive cars ever to operate over 100k miles.
In sharp contrast a PHEV does not take as heavy a toll on its battery and these batteries tend to last a lot longer (batteries are also cheaper ~$12k for a Fisker Karma battery) Long term unless some huge breakthrough happens with regards to cheap batteries (not necessarily increased capacity/range) high mileage BEV owners will be in for a rude awakening in a few years. I am skeptical about battery costs coming down to the point of this not being an issue (in the next few years).