Sigurd said:
I think several countries in Europe are positioned for people to transition into EV better than the U.S.. I think they have invested more in terms of infrastructure and have made tax incentives and reduced duties on EV to make them more attractive to people. Plus, gas at $8 per gallon helps a lot to convince people.
I think the U.S. market is huge, but the transition will take longer here because of our cheap gas. But, as Pythagoras suggested, once gas hits north of $5 per gallon, people will look for alternatives in droves.
Isn't it amazing how every time gas gets near $5.00/gallon it magically falls back in price? We are experiencing it again right now. Gasoline prices reached $4.00+ in February, and everyone was predicting $5.00 for the summer driving season. Now we are well below $4.00 (except in certain parts of CA), even though we have entered the peak driving season.
My theory:
1) When prices get over $4.00, consumers change their behavior and demand gets reduced
2) Gas prices over $4.00 (and oil north of $100/bbl) reduces overall economic growth, further shrinking demand
3) Possibly the oil companies know that $5.00 is the magic number for consumers switching to EVs, and don't want that to happen. The February gasoline price spike resulted in higher sales for Volt and Leaf, for example.