[Stefan]

I'm interested in your opinions about what would happen, if DOE gets some hint to do the math:
- they cannot get the full loan back
- if they forget about the loan completely or at least abandon it temporarily (let's say 2years), while binding the buyer to US plants
- if FA then finds a new partner

What will happen?

How long would it take to start Atlantic production?
When would the first cars be available?
Would FA be faster than the big companies again?
Would this turn to be a good path for us Karma Owners? (they don't have to produce more Karmas, just service the existing ones)


Stefan
German Karma Forum
www.karma-forum.de

 

[dennis]

I'm interested in your opinions about what would happen, if DOE gets some hint to do the math:
- they cannot get the full loan back
- if they forget about the loan completely or at least abandon it temporarily (let's say 2years), while binding the buyer to US plants
- if FA then finds a new partner

What will happen?

How long would it take to start Atlantic production?
When would the first cars be available?
Would FA be faster than the big companies again?
Would this turn to be a good path for us Karma Owners? (they don't have to produce more Karmas, just service the existing ones)

My guess is that the DOE has done the math, but they have also done the political calculus. It would be better for them to take less money in a bankruptcy assets sale than to be seen giving a discount on the loan.

As for the Atlantic, I remember Lasorda saying that it would take two years to complete the engineering and get it into production.

I think the best Karma owners can hope for is that someone buys up the spare parts and spare cars in bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar and turns it into a profitable service business.

 

[Weird Fishes]

My guess is that the DOE has done the math, but they have also done the political calculus. It would be better for them to take less money in a bankruptcy assets sale than to be seen giving a discount on the loan.

As for the Atlantic, I remember Lasorda saying that it would take two years to complete the engineering and get it into production.

I think the best Karma owners can hope for is that someone buys up the spare parts and spare cars in bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar and turns it into a profitable service business.

dennis, you have always struck me as someone who was very optimistic about Fisker Automotive. I'm surprised to read a post from you that basically says you think FA is done and will never produce any more cars (or parts for that matter).

 

[dennis]

dennis, you have always struck me as someone who was very optimistic about Fisker Automotive. I'm surprised to read a post from you that basically says you think FA is done and will never produce any more cars (or parts for that matter).

I'm optimistic about the Karma as a great car to drive and a potential collectible, but I am realistic about FA:

1) They are down to a skeleton crew
2) The DOE is owed $172M and politically they can't be seen to be discounting that to any potential buyer
3) Let's say it takes $200M of capital and 2 years to bring the Atlantic to market. That means any buyer will have to invest $372M for a potential payoff 4-5 years in the future.
4) The window for establishing a new car company based on disruptive EV technology may have closed.

Given that, I remain hopeful that someone will buy up the Karma inventory and parts and provide service, parts and tuning (software enhancements) for the existing cars.

I'd love to be proven wrong in this assessment and see more Karmas and the Atlantic produced in the future.

 

[pythagoras]

Why do you think the DOE politically can't be seen discounting the loan to a buyer? The DOE presence is what has blocked every possible deal and they must realize that by now. They're not gonna get the money back in bankruptcy they might as well convert it to equity so deals can move forward. They can point to Tesla's success in saying its important to let the technology move forward.

 

[Mikey43]

This is why you need a bankruptcy. This can't be a private negotiation. The DOE isn't going to make deals. The court will try to create the most value on the assets and that money will go to 1. Attorneys and accountants
2. DOE
3 Nothing left after that
Dennis is spot on. Only hope for is a company to get parts and service going, otherwise we are all going to experience what I am going through--see thread "Dead Karma"

 

[steven]

This just in:
http://www.mercurynews.com/cars/ci_23291215/carmaker-chinese-auto-parts-giant-bid-fisker

Old news is new news?

 

[pythagoras]

Mikey I respect your prior experiences with bankruptcies but Fisker has been different all along precisely because it has become so high profile political. For the most part that's worked against Fisker, but I'm not so sure here.

Do you all really think the press/political stink from coming up with a creative, face-saving deal can be worse than that from a bankruptcy announcement? Once bankruptcy is announced we'll never hear the end of it from Fox and Republicans for the next 3 years. These same people who conveniently forget Tesla got a full $500 million DOE loan to help its current success while Fisker's was cut off resulting in unending chaos for the company and investors.

 

[Mikey43]

Mikey I respect your prior experiences with bankruptcies but Fisker has been different all along precisely because it has become so high profile political. For the most part that's worked against Fisker, but I'm not so sure here.

Do you all really think the press/political stink from coming up with a creative, face-saving deal can be worse than that from a bankruptcy announcement? Once bankruptcy is announced we'll never hear the end of it from Fox and Republicans for the next 3 years. These same people who conveniently forget Tesla got a full $500 million DOE loan to help its current success while Fisker's was cut off resulting in unending chaos for the company and investors.

Pythagoras-
can't argue with this, I agree. However, we have a company here that has not had revenue or new capital injected in 8 months, lost their dealerships, don't honor warranties, don't answer phones, don't give interview.
On the other hand they do collect salaries every week, so do something already.
Sorry to say, and believe me, I wish it were different, they are already bankrupt, just haven't declared.

 

[dennis]

Mikey I respect your prior experiences with bankruptcies but Fisker has been different all along precisely because it has become so high profile political. For the most part that's worked against Fisker, but I'm not so sure here.

Do you all really think the press/political stink from coming up with a creative, face-saving deal can be worse than that from a bankruptcy announcement? Once bankruptcy is announced we'll never hear the end of it from Fox and Republicans for the next 3 years. These same people who conveniently forget Tesla got a full $500 million DOE loan to help its current success while Fisker's was cut off resulting in unending chaos for the company and investors.

The issue is the DOE cannot be seen selling Taxpayer-funded technology to the Chinese at a discount.

 

[pythagoras]

Whoever said the Chinese are only interested parties?

 

[Ira]

The best political outcome is to have VL buy FA using funds from the same Chinese company who provides the batteries. No one will complain if American autoworkers are hired and the Delaware factory is reopened, even if the DOE has to restructure FA's loan. It's a win-win, and I hope it happens. Under this scenario, I don't think it matters if there's a prepackaged bankruptcy as a first step.

BTW: The idea behind a prepackaged bankruptcy plan is to shorten and simplify the bankruptcy process in order to save the company money in legal and accounting fees, as well as the amount of time spent in bankruptcy protection. The sooner the company can emerge from bankruptcy, the sooner it can implement its reorganization and return to generating revenues.

 

[tannerc]

If VL ends up with Fisker Automotive, I think it will be a much different company and I don't know if I want VL to own them. At least Wanxiang would most likely keep Fisker relatively the same.

 

[dennis]

Whoever said the Chinese are only interested parties?

According to the article one bidding group included Wanxiang and the other an outfit from Hong Kong. Both are Chinese.

 

[Ira]

According to the article one bidding group included Wanxiang and the other an outfit from Hong Kong. Both are Chinese.

Yes, that's what the article said. This is the best news we've had in a while and has a good chance of success if the deal is well-funded and manufacturing remains in the U.S.

It doesn't matter if they're Martians.

 

[doug]

Once bankruptcy is announced we'll never hear the end of it from Fox and Republicans for the next 3 years. These same people who conveniently forget Tesla got a full $500 million DOE loan to help its current success while Fisker's was cut off resulting in unending chaos for the company and investors.

Until very recently Tesla was grouped with Fisker as another one of the "losers". People still occasionally ask me about that Tesla fire in Texas.

At any rate, rumor has it they'll pay off the loan tomorrow.

 

[Sigurd]

That would be awesome @doug. I would love to be able to argue that there have been EV manufacturers in the U.S. that is profitable and even if they were given loan guarantees, they have paid back those loans.

 

[BHale1]

I think that Tesla's success may help Fisker. Tesla also was once on the verge of bankruptcy and produced about 2500 cars (Tesla Roadster) with quality problems noted by Top Gear and Car and Driver. The company was saved by its billionaire owner, Musk, who put his own money into the company. Now the company is doing well and is mass producing a top quality product (Tesla S). Even though Tesla and Fisker's approaches to car development have been different, I could see investors viewing them in a similar light, thinking that the mass produced Atlantic might make the company profitable.

 

[Sigurd]

I hope you are onto something there. Sounds plausible and would make me happy to see come to fruition.

 

[NJFISKERGUY]

I have to agree with BHale1. The roadster had lots of problems when it 1st came out just like the Karma. I drove the car and was impressed but didn't think it came close to the Karma.