Originally Posted by ebarneyr
Just saw this in GreenTech:"But Fisker has struggled to deliver its first car, the high-end hybrid Karma sports car, with only about 40 cars delivered to date. Earth2Tech reported that A123 said Fisker is now looking to delay full-scale Karma production until mid-2012 -- despite the fact that it’s raised close to $700 million, most recently with a $58 million tranche of a $150 million “pre-IPO” round." Anybody know if this is so and what it means for those of us deposit holders?
Ray Lane claimed that Fisker were on target for a "full" production run in 2012, but then later he or someone official adjusted this slightly to say that "full production" meant 10 to 12 thousand.
If we assume that the "normal" rate is roughly 300 vehicles a week (300 x 50 = 15,000), and assume that 300/wk is how fast they will come out of the factory in Uusikaupunki, that gives roughly 33 to 40 weeks of production in 2012, which gives them the first quarter of 2012 to run at very low rates while working out yet more bugs.
If we further assume that Fisker have enough A123 packs on hand to run at full production rate for Q4 and Q1 of Calendar Years 2011 and 2012, that means they won't start ordering new packs until mid-Q2, which to A123 looks like "full production starts in 2012Q3".
There is an awful lot of "assume"-ing above, and you know what they say about "when you assume", but it does fit together reasonably well.